The patent approved letter. We should all own a few. (via USPTO & wikipedia)
Companies who want to get a ‘leg-up’ on future technology trends and designs usually mine data and statistics from a myriad of sources including existing patents. To get an idea of how far these companies will go just look at the recent patent cat-fight between Apple and Samsung over patent infringement rights concerning the Galaxy Nexus smartphone (which as of 7/9/2012 is still banned in the US). Apple even wanted to go as far as saying they owned the rights to ‘swiping’; the gesture needed to unlock most smartphones. These squabbles translate to big business in terms of millions of dollars so getting information on current trends of technology can lead to a financial windfall in the future.
In order to get an accurate forecast bearing for the next new "hot" product, companies need to mine an inordinate amount of economic, societal and technological data. Suffice it to say, this is no easy task. At the end of the day, the data collected does not ensure a successful outcome for the future. Getting trending information does indeed help in making a detailed ‘road-map’ of probable future technology trends.
In an effort to make the data-mining process simpler, Hungarian computational neuroscientist Peter Erdi at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in Budapest has developed an algorithm that can analyze patents and correlate all the relevant data which then provides a prediction on emerging future technologies. The software looks at the frequency at which new patents cite pre-existing patents (as required by law), which is then grouped into affiliated clusters that can develop over time and merge with one another or branch off into new technology altogether. The algorithm was tested using old US patents covering agricultures, textiles and food and found that it predicted the emergence of the recently introduced non-woven textiles (mashed together fabrics fused using solvents) market.
Can the algorithm accurately predict the future of technology? I’m going to have to say no, but it can give an accurate map of existing technology and give companies an idea where demand may be headed.
Cabe
