New data has confirmed that worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to reach $309 billion in 2012. This is a 2.2 per cent rise on 2011, research firm Gartner said. The outlook is, however, down from the firm's previous (third quarter) projection for 4.6 percent growth in 2012.
Bryan Lewis, research vice-president at Gartner, predicted a continuation of the high degree of uncertainty impacting spending by both consumers and enterprises stemming from troubles in the Eurozone. Mr Lewis observed that these concerns will have a knock-on impact on the semiconductor industry, hence Gartner's latest forecast.
"The near-term forecast is being shaped not only by economic forces but by an inventory correction, manufacturing oversupply and natural disasters," he remarked.
Furthermore, Gartner said that PC production unit growth for 2012 is projected to rise five percent, down from 10.1 percent growth in the previous forecast. The research firm observed that while this is in part due to continuing economic strife, it is also due to the floods that hit Thailand this year. This, the research firm noted, led to a hard-disk drive shortage that has slowed the PC market.
Gartner said that over the next few quarters, hard-disk drive supply will be limited until the industry can resume full production.
The forecast for mobile phone production unit growth was up slightly for 2012, rising from seven percent to 7.5 percent. By contrast, the media tablet production forecast has been lowered by Gartner, from 110 million to 107 million in 2012. This is, however, still a 63 percent increase from 2011.
Added to this, Gartner analysts argued that as smartphones ramp up in volume, they will dominate semiconductor growth in 2012.
The DRAM market, meanwhile, is set to decline 26 percent in 2011, Gartner said. Despite this, the research firm said that the market will return to growth in 2012, growing three percent.
"Our latest forecast analysis shows that dollar growth in smartphones, media tablets and solid-state drives in total will generate 77 percent of semiconductor market growth through 2015 - clearly a very significant concentration of opportunity," Mr Lewis commented.