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Member's Forum Does anyone still try to predict the future of technology?
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  • futuristic
  • fortune telling
  • future technology
  • retro futurism
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Does anyone still try to predict the future of technology?

cstanton
cstanton over 4 years ago

Living in the UK I remember shows like 'Tomorrows World' where we'd see revolutionary new types of electronics and hardware...

 

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There've even been predictive books such as 'the science of science fiction' and other 'retro futurism' such as:

 

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I like to browse https://www.reddit.com/r/RetroFuturism from time to time to see what 'predictions' have came true, and see what was off the mark...

 

Have you seen anything like this now, predicting the future? Either in fiction or non fiction? Perhaps there's some TV show that I've not seen, or maybe a YouTube channel?

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  • dougw
    dougw over 4 years ago +3
    Ray Kurzweil claims 86% accuracy since 1990. Of 147 predictions for 2009, 115 have been correct and 12 within a couple of years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd17c5m4kdM&ab_channel=CInnovationGlobal…
  • Andrew J
    Andrew J over 4 years ago +2
    I have predicted to my father that within 30 years we won’t be allowed to drive on public roads but instead will have automated traffic only. The biggest issue with mixing the two being the unpredictable…
  • cstanton
    cstanton over 4 years ago in reply to Andrew J +2
    > So only those who can afford to run a car around a race track or private land will own one This may be something that's likely to be different from country to country, I can see the taxation/legislation…
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  • Andrew J
    Andrew J over 4 years ago

    I have predicted to my father that within 30 years we won’t be allowed to drive on public roads but instead will have automated traffic only.  The biggest issue with mixing the two being the unpredictable nature of human drivers.  Also, at that point, car ownership will be minuscule and most of us will call for a car when we actually need it - if you can’t drive it, what’s the point of owning one?  So only those who can afford to run a car around a race track or private land will own one.

     

    That one is fairly easy to predict mind, although the timescales may turn out to be a bit off.  I think HS2 - for those not in the know, a new £150Bn railway between London and Birmingham that shaves 10 mins of the journey time - is a real missed opportunity to build a self-drive only road as a test bed for freight traffic between hubs.  Perhaps a businessman could get from London to Birmingham 10 mins faster if the lorries weren’t on the motorway!

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  • cstanton
    cstanton over 4 years ago in reply to Andrew J

    > So only those who can afford to run a car around a race track or private land will own one

     

    This may be something that's likely to be different from country to country, I can see the taxation/legislation of fossil fuels killing off the ownership of a vehicle more than automated vehicles.

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  • cstanton
    cstanton over 4 years ago in reply to Andrew J

    > So only those who can afford to run a car around a race track or private land will own one

     

    This may be something that's likely to be different from country to country, I can see the taxation/legislation of fossil fuels killing off the ownership of a vehicle more than automated vehicles.

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  • Andrew J
    Andrew J over 4 years ago in reply to cstanton

    Yes, may well be different for different countries.  Legislation will kill off fossil fuel cars before taxation - UK is banning the sale of non EVs from 2030 IIRC.  But my prediction is not based on fuel type: people won’t be allowed to drive themselves on the public highway by 2050-2060 and that will kill off car ownership, but not usage. Environmental and safety issues will drive that, if you can possibly excuse the pun.

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  • dougw
    dougw over 4 years ago in reply to cstanton

    Where I came from there was a 100% tax on sports cars and a further 100% tax on cars with engines over 2000cc. It did not stop people from buying sports cars.

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