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  • Author Author: yoSoyTono
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Are autonomous vehicles safer than human drivers?

yoSoyTono

Autonomous Vehicles are driving towards zero accidents: being involved in fewer crashes, getting less injuries, and possibly saving lives. However, most comparisons between driverless vehicles and human drivers have been uneven... and maybe unfair.

 

Even when statistics show that above 90% of incidents in the US involve some form of human errors or deficiencies, there is not enough data to accurately assess if automation might be better than humans at not-crashing. Reliable crash rates should be calculated by incorporating how many non-collisions happen —assessing rates at which things do not happen is exceptionally challenging. For human drivers is it 1 collision per billion chances to crash? Or 1 in a trillion? To determine whether autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers, researchers need to define a non-collision rate for both humans and self-driving cars and trucks.

 

As the government is allowing self-driving vehicles to operate widely, the information on fully automated systems will include more roads and situations, covering many miles in a year and as many circumstances as human drivers currently do. The crash statistics for human-driven cars are gathered from different sorts of driving situations and on all types of roads (through pouring rain, on dirt roads, climbing steep slopes in the snow, or more), and the current data on self-driving vehicles comes from good weather through unidirectional or multi-lane highways.

 

Both human-drivers and autonomous vehicles need to work together as driverless cars and trucks do not get emotional, tired, angry, frustrated, or drunk, but they can not foresight and avoid potential danger. Self-driving vehicles mostly drive from moment to moment instead of thinking ahead for possible events down the road; they will not react to unknown situations with the skill or anticipation of a human driver. Deciding the action to take in an emergency case is quite hard for humans and considering that autonomous vehicles have limited understanding of the world, they will never evaluate a situation the same way a human would —since machines cannot be programmed in advance to handle every potential set of events.

 

The promise of reducing the number of injuries and deaths is acceptable to justify expanding the use of driverless cars. However, automotive engineers need to learn from other industries (like aviation) and consider there is usually an increase in the rate of unfavorable events when implementing new automated systems in order to set up a mitigation plan. This (temporary) potential growth in the crash rate could cause concern from politicians, lawmakers, manufacturers, and even the general public —causing discouragement from supporting autonomous technologies.

 

Choosing to replace human-drivers with self-driving vehicles has more effects than just a one-for-one swap. Human-controlled cars and trucks are likely to remain on the roads for many years and even decades to come, so comparisons between humans and autonomous vehicles have to be carefully done. How will people and autonomous vehicles drive together? Who will be responsible in case of accidents? The need to evaluate self-driving vehicles (on how well they fulfill their promise of improved safety) is critical to ensure the data provides an accurate comparison —a fair comparison to determine if autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers.

 

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  • Are autonomous vehicles safer than human drivers?  I believe thus far the answer to this question is absolutely no.  There have been too many crashes with autonomous vehicles where if the human driver was at the the control may have prevented the crash.   There is just not enough data and the tech is not at the level needed for them to be safer at this time.

     

    One thing though, unlike the Nexus Replicates in Blade Runner, as far as I know, there is no way to code memories into the autonomous vehicles.   If a human has survived to the point where they can drive a vehicle, they more than likely have had some sort of "Oh, Crap!" experience in their life like running into the street as a kid to chase that ball to realize they are suddenly facing a car with screeching tires coming at them.  This memory is, hopefully, carried to adulthood so when a ball is seen crossing a road, that memory will flash for the driver who then would expect a child to follow the ball and react accordingly.  This certainly would not occur 100% of the time, but this type of reaction would not be the same for a silicon based mind.

     

    However, I believe autonomous vehicles offer a level of Independence for those who do not otherwise have the ability to drive on their own.  But, then again, is that not what Uber and Lyft are for?

  • in reply to jomoenginer
    I believe thus far the answer to this question is absolutely no

      I have to agree with you 100%.

     

    While there are 'driver caused' accidents often these have a environment component added to make the distinction blurred.

    Sadly here in NZ our police are more interested in who they can charge, than finding the actual cause.

    I've seen skid marks used to judge the speed prior to an accident, but they have not used a similar weighted vehicle with the same tires on that stretch of road to be able to confirm the data.

    When you start adding potentially flawed data into a result, you will always reach an incorrect conclusion, and simply distort the data.

     

    There are many situations in controlled circumstances that autonomous vehicles may benefit society, but are you simply swapping a potential job for a robot?.

     

    One of my work mates laughs when he heard that driver-less vehicles will reduce congestion.

    His comment was no, they'll add to the problem because after it drops me at work, I'll send it home, then it can come pick me up again.

    That's 4 trips instead of 2. image

     

    Since it's likely to be electric there is minimal cost, and no parking issues.

     

    An interesting exercise is this :-

    Moral Machine

     

    Even better is Jeremy Clarkson and the ethical decisions of driverless cars.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbLRIhRqMVk

     

     

     

    Mark

  • in reply to mcb1

      wrote:

     

     

    While there are 'driver caused' accidents often these have a environment component added to make the distinction blurred.

    Sadly here in NZ our police are more interested in who they can charge, than finding the actual cause.

    I've seen skid marks used to judge the speed prior to an accident, but they have not used a similar weighted vehicle with the same tires on that stretch of road to be able to confirm the data.

    When you start adding potentially flawed data into a result, you will always reach an incorrect conclusion, and simply distort the data.

     

     

    Even better is Jeremy Clarkson and the ethical decisions of driverless cars.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbLRIhRqMVk

     

     

     

    Mark

    Yeah, that does bring up another question.  If an officer pulls over an autonomous vehicle for some sort of moving violation, who gets the ticket?  The owner of the vehicle, the car manufacture, the person who wrote the code, or does the autonomous vehicle gets some sort of demerits where after a certain amount the vehicle is disabled and prevented from being allowed on the roadways?  Same issue when there is a death involving an autonomous vehicle.  If it is found to be at fault, who or what gets punished? What about when it gets hacked, or rather cracked?  This will happen.

     

    Too much uncertainty at this point.

Comment
  • in reply to mcb1

      wrote:

     

     

    While there are 'driver caused' accidents often these have a environment component added to make the distinction blurred.

    Sadly here in NZ our police are more interested in who they can charge, than finding the actual cause.

    I've seen skid marks used to judge the speed prior to an accident, but they have not used a similar weighted vehicle with the same tires on that stretch of road to be able to confirm the data.

    When you start adding potentially flawed data into a result, you will always reach an incorrect conclusion, and simply distort the data.

     

     

    Even better is Jeremy Clarkson and the ethical decisions of driverless cars.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbLRIhRqMVk

     

     

     

    Mark

    Yeah, that does bring up another question.  If an officer pulls over an autonomous vehicle for some sort of moving violation, who gets the ticket?  The owner of the vehicle, the car manufacture, the person who wrote the code, or does the autonomous vehicle gets some sort of demerits where after a certain amount the vehicle is disabled and prevented from being allowed on the roadways?  Same issue when there is a death involving an autonomous vehicle.  If it is found to be at fault, who or what gets punished? What about when it gets hacked, or rather cracked?  This will happen.

     

    Too much uncertainty at this point.

Children
  • in reply to jomoenginer
    who gets the ticket?

    HAHA ... really good point.

    They'll say the vehicle won't be in that situation ...

     

    It will be interesting to watch the case of the lady on the bicycle crossing the road being killed by the autonomous vehicle under test.

    I doubt that any vehicle would have stopped, but it's very likely they may have avoided her, and forget about the poor camera quality, we know human eyesight is much better than their camera.

     

    mark

     

  • in reply to jomoenginer

    >who gets the ticket?  ... the person who wrote the code ...

     

    My insurance company very (VERY!) clearly stated that they would not cover me if I chose to work (as a software contractor) in aviation technology... I bet the same now applies to autonomous vehicles!

     

    -Nico