Most industry experts agree that Diverse Mobility, Autonomous-Driving, Electrification, and Connectivity disruptive trends will accelerate one another and also shift the whole automotive sector. Those technology-driven trends will change the way on how we do things today: reducing auto accidents, freeing up large amounts of parking space, giving people more time to entertain themselves, or evolving automotive-related jobs.
Self-Driving vehicles are not on the road yet, but they will significantly impact on both economy and society when they get there —according to the Automotive revolution: perspective towards 2030 from the consulting firm McKinsey. The assessment forecasts the first stage of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) around 2023 in controlled environments and commercial transporters, by 2037 those AVs will be fully-adopted as part of stage two.
The report drafts some key perspectives on the "automotive revolution” and gives insights for the coming changes and its effects for OEMs and suppliers, potential new players, regulators, consumers, and the automotive value chain and markets:
- Automotive-related new business models could expand around 30%, adding up to $1.5 trillion; driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and featured upgrades.
- Vehicle unit sales will continue growing but at a lower rate (near 2% p.a.) despite the shared mobility shift and the rise of the upcoming fit-for-purpose mobility solutions market.
- City type is becoming the most relevant segmentation dimension (instead of country or region), determining consumer mobility behavior and the speed of the automotive revolution.
- Up to 15% of newly sold cars in 2030 could be fully autonomous, once technological and regulatory affairs get resolved.
- Electrified Vehicles (EV) are becoming more viable and competitive.
- Automotive players will be forced to simultaneously compete on multiple fronts and cooperate with competitors, due to the complex and diversified mobility industry landscape.
McKinsey oversees benefits from those technology-driven trends. The public might save up to $190 billion a year because of safer driving and reduced health care costs, get around 50 extra minutes a day for work/entertainment by not driving the vehicle, or even a 61 billion free square feet of parking space due to AV consistently parking. OEMs will get a growth in the personal mobility market, bringing sources of recurring revenue, while expecting a decline in the one-time vehicle sales. This disruption will provide opportunities for other industries: the in-car media market could reach a $5 billion-worth a year using AVs as platforms and precursor for all sorts of robot technologies for end-consumers.
The automotive industry is far from declining; it will become a driver of change and benefit from convergence and disruption that new technology-driven trends will bring in the future while taking advantage of the changing economies, emerging markets, sustainability policies, and new consumer preferences around ownership.