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Member's Forum Have you ever been way off on your technical predictions?
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Have you ever been way off on your technical predictions?

dougw
dougw over 1 year ago
  • Were you one of the many who thought the computer mouse would never catch on because it was slower and less precise than a keyboard?
  • Did you really expect a 2 TB microSD card to be available this year for $4 ?
  • Did you expect digital cameras to completely make film and videotape obsolete?
  • Did you expect an 85 inch UHD TV to be available weighing just 41 kg?
  • Did you ever expect to see PCBs fabricated in low volume for less than $1?
  • Did you ever expect a 3D printer to be available and cost less than $150?
  • Did you ever expect to see a smart phone with a 100 mpixel camera?
  • Did you find GPS to be a mind-altering revolution in navigation?
  • Did you predict that Apple's iphone would unseat all the big phone companies and make Apple the largest company in the world?

Some of these things simply blow my mind.

What technology blows your mind or surprises you?

  1. When do you expect to see dwellings built with automated enclosed landing ports that have security beacons for drone deliveries?
  2. When do you expect driverless aerial Uber drones to be legalized?
  3. When do you expect most people to have an AI as their family physician?
  4. When do you expect the majority of people to spend more time in the metaverse than they do in the real world?
  5. When will you have a digital ID that allows you to vote with your phone? (some places already have this)

Would you bet money that your predictions of any of these 5 dates are accurate?

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Top Replies

  • gordonmx
    gordonmx over 1 year ago +2
    Bubble memory is the storage of the future. (1980s)
  • dougw
    dougw over 1 year ago in reply to bradfordmiller +2
    Yes, DEC's demise was hard hard to understand and to take. In some ways it was unfortunate that they were so far ahead in microcomputer development - they had launched the LSI-11 micro in 1975, 6 years…
  • kmikemoo
    kmikemoo over 1 year ago +2
    I've thought about this one a lot. I'm almost never accurate with my "future predictions". My Mom, however, was definitely an "early adopter" when it came to tech. She was on Vontage before VoIP was mainstream…
  • gordonmx
    gordonmx over 1 year ago

    Bubble memory is the storage of the future. (1980s)

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  • gordonmx
    gordonmx over 1 year ago

    Technology will make the world a better place and we will all live a more peaceful life.

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  • dougw
    dougw over 1 year ago in reply to gordonmx

    Yes, and I also expected FRAM to be much more widely used.

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  • DAB
    DAB over 1 year ago

    Fifty years ago I proposed that you could go online order your groceries and have them delivered to your home.

    We now have that service and use it regularly.

    I still see prediction of flying cars, but since most people can barely drive an automobile I suspect that we can only get to flying cars when computers can fly them safely.

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  • BigG
    BigG over 1 year ago

    I was absolutely convinced that the Apple iPad would never take off. People had laptops and they had phones. Why would anyone want something that was neither. And yet here we are with tablets galore.

    More recently, I thought these new airPods would also never catch on. Then I purchased some unknown clone on Amazon (they were on sale at a silly price) and was certainly impressed.

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  • beacon_dave
    beacon_dave over 1 year ago

    It looks like there is some renewed interest in the AirCar project: 

       European flying car technology sold to China
       https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68669296

    however it will still likely require several non technology related 'ducks to be lined up in a row' for it to be successful. DuckDuckDuck

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  • beacon_dave
    beacon_dave over 1 year ago in reply to BigG

    I recall that the early attempts at tablet devices in the 90s failed miserably primarily due to lack of standardised wireless networking, battery life, and touch screen interfaces. Over time those three technologies developed and with the later attempts more people saw enough benefit to start purchasing them.

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  • BigG
    BigG over 1 year ago in reply to beacon_dave

    Gosh yes, I forgot all about the Palm Pilot (sometime in the 90's). Then there was a WindowsOS tablet that was big and clunky. All these poor products added to the belief that tablets were a non starter.

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  • dougw
    dougw over 1 year ago in reply to BigG

    Other notables include Apple Newton, HP Touchpad, & MS Pocket PC. There are lots of reasons and theories why the tablet market kept failing to take off.

    My theory is that they didn't come with good enough games.

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  • kmikemoo
    kmikemoo over 1 year ago in reply to beacon_dave

    I used the Handspring Visor (a Palm Pilot spinoff) a lot.  To be efficient, you had to mastere it's shorthand or tap away with the stylus.  It's major downfall was volume.  I had to keep it in a chest pocket to hear anything.  And, yes, it way kind of clunky.  In a field uniform, it wasn't so bad.  In everything else... it was too much.

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