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  • Author Author: rscasny
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Is Moore's Law Still Valid?

Moore's Law is about 50 years old and more or less stated that the number of transistors (and processing power) on a CPU would double every two years. It's held its own for most of that time. But it appears that's being tested as more and more transistors are squeezed on to a die.

 

Poll Question: Is Moore's Law Still Valid?

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  • Physics is the absolute law. So Moore Law cannot hold true long term, only for the shorter term.

    Clem

  • in reply to clem57

    You are correct and that is true no doubt.

    Predicting how long the law will hold is a tougher question.

    I suspect there is still likely some ways to go in this case.

    Moore's Law held up long after the first predictions of it running into a physics limit.

    Scientists and others often believe physics precludes a solution when it doesn't.

    It was thought a heavier-than-air vehicle could never fly.

    I think when the law was postulated it was thought that transistors could not have geometries smaller than 450 nm, because that was the wavelength of light used to expose masks.

    It was thought that white LEDs were impossible because a bandgap generates essentially monochromatic light.

    There are numerous other examples.

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  • in reply to clem57

    You are correct and that is true no doubt.

    Predicting how long the law will hold is a tougher question.

    I suspect there is still likely some ways to go in this case.

    Moore's Law held up long after the first predictions of it running into a physics limit.

    Scientists and others often believe physics precludes a solution when it doesn't.

    It was thought a heavier-than-air vehicle could never fly.

    I think when the law was postulated it was thought that transistors could not have geometries smaller than 450 nm, because that was the wavelength of light used to expose masks.

    It was thought that white LEDs were impossible because a bandgap generates essentially monochromatic light.

    There are numerous other examples.

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