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  • Author Author: rscasny
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Is Moore's Law Still Valid?

Moore's Law is about 50 years old and more or less stated that the number of transistors (and processing power) on a CPU would double every two years. It's held its own for most of that time. But it appears that's being tested as more and more transistors are squeezed on to a die.

 

Poll Question: Is Moore's Law Still Valid?

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  • It is sort of still true but not on the 2 year schedule. Quantum (non-linear) leaps in the shrinking of transistor size are still happening and there are more coming. However some of these quantum leaps are bigger than a factor of 2 and some take longer than 2 years to develop. When they actually get commercialized, we will be able to see if they are equivalent to a doubling of the number of transistors every 2 years. Although in the past few years commercialized technology is not quite keeping up with Moore's law, there are already various experimental technologies that can produce transistors all the way down to the size of a single atom, so the potential is there to get back on track. It is just a matter of how long it takes to make commercial devices with these new technologies.

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  • It is sort of still true but not on the 2 year schedule. Quantum (non-linear) leaps in the shrinking of transistor size are still happening and there are more coming. However some of these quantum leaps are bigger than a factor of 2 and some take longer than 2 years to develop. When they actually get commercialized, we will be able to see if they are equivalent to a doubling of the number of transistors every 2 years. Although in the past few years commercialized technology is not quite keeping up with Moore's law, there are already various experimental technologies that can produce transistors all the way down to the size of a single atom, so the potential is there to get back on track. It is just a matter of how long it takes to make commercial devices with these new technologies.

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