new RPi model B planned soon

Guys, one thing that seems to be forgotten is that the RPI foundation apparently got stuck with a batch of 256Mb POP memory chips. Those are going on the model As that hopefully hit the streets soon.

When you are a supermarket, people walk in and expect to be able to buy things immediately. "1L milk, yes madam, I'll order it right away, it will be delivered here next wednesday. Goodbye madam!". Not acceptable.

Also many shops have the hopes of selling MORE if they keep stock. Someone somewhere might be looking for a product and go somewhere else if you don't have it NOW.

However in other markets, notably the BCM2835 market, are different. A chip fab is very very unlikely  (and probably contractually prohibited) to keep stock. Then there is broadcom. They apparently live in a market where they don't know in advance how many chips of an item will be sold. So they keep maybe enough stock to provide samples, but for production quanitities, they have a lead time. So they can schedule making about as many chips as have been sold, and/or shift production ratios between chips as the demand requires.

As I believe that Farnell has sold about 430k raspberries, they apparently correctly estimated such an amount of BCM2835's and ordered them in time for august/september/october/november delivery.

RS however started delivery of raspberry pi orders number 130k and up somewhere late october, early november. At the point those orders were taken, the one-per-customer rule hadn't been lifted yet (or not for long anyway).  So at that point in time, they either had sold 130k or 30k (if they started the orders at 100k).

For Farnell to order 300k extra BCM2835's before they had sold them that too is a leap of faith. A gamble that has paid out well.

Now in hindsight you might say that this was not a gamble. But it was. At first the expected salesvolume was 10k. But on launchday that number probably needed adjustment to 100k. Fine. But if you order 300k more chips will they be sold? Maybe, just maybe, someone comes out with a $30 board with better specs than the 'pi and all of a sudden sales drop. Then, what are you going to do with those extra BCM2835s?

> Guys, one thing that seems to be forgotten is that the RPI foundation apparently got stuck with a batch of 256Mb POP memory chips. Those are going on the model As that hopefully hit the streets soon.

I don't think anyone's forgotten that.  But so far there are more questions than answers.

Why would RPF get stuck owning chips if the distributors do all the manufacturing?

Do the distributors buy their ram chips from RPF?   If so, do they buy the SoC or other chips

from RPF as well?  Do they buy unpopulated boards from RPF?  Or populated boards?

Does this shed any light on why RS boards have the Sony "made in the UK" silkscreen?

Does this shed any light on why both distributors started shipping 512MB boards on

the same date?  If RPF is in the middle of things, does RPF's limited capital restrict

the production rate?   Did the distributors balk at making Model A's?

>RS however started delivery of raspberry pi orders number 130k and up somewhere late october, early november. At the point those orders were taken, the one-per-customer rule hadn't been lifted yet (or not for long anyway).  So at that point in time, they either had sold 130k or 30k (if they started the orders at 100k).

They are reportedly up to around order number 169K.  But as Jim Manley famously

pointed out, these are order numbers, not units shipped, because there have been

quite a few reports of cancellations.  I think the Allied order numbers are separate,

although probably not very large.

The lead time seems to be different every time it is reported, and it isn't ever clear

whether the chips being delivered now were ordered 30 weeks ago, or the chips

ordered now will be delivered 30 weeks hence.   I don't think either distributor

would have any boards to sell today if they were just now getting chips ordered

30 weeks ago. If RPF starts accepting orders for Model A's in March, does that

mean they won't be delivered until October?

coder27 wrote:

 

The lead time seems to be different every time it is reported, and it isn't ever clear

whether the chips being delivered now were ordered 30 weeks ago, or the chips

ordered now will be delivered 30 weeks hence.   I don't think either distributor

would have any boards to sell today if they were just now getting chips ordered

30 weeks ago. If RPF starts accepting orders for Model A's in March, does that

mean they won't be delivered until October?

Indeed.  The information we've been given just doesn't hang together at all.  And now it has to be reconciled with:

Lizwrote:

 

Farnell told us yesterday that they've shipped 429,000 so far, and I don't have current figures for RS, but they'll be only a little lower)

which of course means that RS could not have been ordering a lot less than Farnell on average, since at the current date they've shipped nearly as many as Farnell (+/- Liz's phrase "little lower").  Any claim that RS were underordering initially by a huge amount has to be met with acceptance that RS were ordering vastly more than Farnell later on, otherwise they could not have shipped roughly similar amounts by today.

coder27 wrote:

 

The lead time seems to be different every time it is reported, and it isn't ever clear

whether the chips being delivered now were ordered 30 weeks ago, or the chips

ordered now will be delivered 30 weeks hence.   I don't think either distributor

would have any boards to sell today if they were just now getting chips ordered

30 weeks ago. If RPF starts accepting orders for Model A's in March, does that

mean they won't be delivered until October?

Indeed.  The information we've been given just doesn't hang together at all.  And now it has to be reconciled with:

Lizwrote:

 

Farnell told us yesterday that they've shipped 429,000 so far, and I don't have current figures for RS, but they'll be only a little lower)

which of course means that RS could not have been ordering a lot less than Farnell on average, since at the current date they've shipped nearly as many as Farnell (+/- Liz's phrase "little lower").  Any claim that RS were underordering initially by a huge amount has to be met with acceptance that RS were ordering vastly more than Farnell later on, otherwise they could not have shipped roughly similar amounts by today.

I would take "little lower" with a few grains of salt, given that order #169xxx,

ordered on July 21, was reportedly shipped yesterday.

http://www.raspberrypi.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=22508&start=181

coder27 wrote:

 

I would take "little lower" with a few grains of salt, given that order #169xxx,

ordered on July 21, was reportedly shipped yesterday.

 

http://www.raspberrypi.org/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=22508&start=181

I really don't know what to make of it, coder.  The only way forward that comes to mind is to ask for the apparent discrepancy to be explained, and for an actual units shipped figure to be given for RS as they did for Farnell.  Whether it's worth risking your RPF account to obtain a response, well, that's up to each individual to decide.

Really, is it that important? We can guess at the numbers a bit. 30k shipped, 60k shipped, 160k shipped. Or even more. But my guess is it's one of the lower numbers. This would be an embarresment for RS to admit. So they won't. Farnell on the other hand can boast about their number. So they do.

Raspberry pi foundation probably should know about the numbers (because they get a percentage), but contractually they probably don't have the right to tell anybody.

So, RPF won't tell you. RS won't tell you. And my best guess is 60k shipped.

Roger Wolff wrote:

 

So, RPF won't tell you. RS won't tell you. And my best guess is 60k shipped.

There's a difference between RPF simply not saying how many, and RPF stating publicly in writing that RS has shipped "only a little lower" than "429,000 so far".  And 60k is not in the ballpark of "only a little lower" than "429,000 so far".  Either RS has indeed shipped only a little lower than 429k, or the spokesperson is under a very serious misapprehension about the volume shipped, or the third alternative is not a pretty one..  So which is it?

I'd say the second one.

I'd also guess the second one, but that makes me wonder why would she'd have bad information about the number shipped by RS.  Did they misreport the number shipped, are they reporting total orders over total units shipped?  For the third option I could see Liz under contractual obligations to understate how bad RS sales have been in order to protect a business partner.