new RPi model B planned soon

Guys, one thing that seems to be forgotten is that the RPI foundation apparently got stuck with a batch of 256Mb POP memory chips. Those are going on the model As that hopefully hit the streets soon.

When you are a supermarket, people walk in and expect to be able to buy things immediately. "1L milk, yes madam, I'll order it right away, it will be delivered here next wednesday. Goodbye madam!". Not acceptable.

Also many shops have the hopes of selling MORE if they keep stock. Someone somewhere might be looking for a product and go somewhere else if you don't have it NOW.

However in other markets, notably the BCM2835 market, are different. A chip fab is very very unlikely  (and probably contractually prohibited) to keep stock. Then there is broadcom. They apparently live in a market where they don't know in advance how many chips of an item will be sold. So they keep maybe enough stock to provide samples, but for production quanitities, they have a lead time. So they can schedule making about as many chips as have been sold, and/or shift production ratios between chips as the demand requires.

As I believe that Farnell has sold about 430k raspberries, they apparently correctly estimated such an amount of BCM2835's and ordered them in time for august/september/october/november delivery.

RS however started delivery of raspberry pi orders number 130k and up somewhere late october, early november. At the point those orders were taken, the one-per-customer rule hadn't been lifted yet (or not for long anyway).  So at that point in time, they either had sold 130k or 30k (if they started the orders at 100k).

For Farnell to order 300k extra BCM2835's before they had sold them that too is a leap of faith. A gamble that has paid out well.

Now in hindsight you might say that this was not a gamble. But it was. At first the expected salesvolume was 10k. But on launchday that number probably needed adjustment to 100k. Fine. But if you order 300k more chips will they be sold? Maybe, just maybe, someone comes out with a $30 board with better specs than the 'pi and all of a sudden sales drop. Then, what are you going to do with those extra BCM2835s?

Roger Wolff wrote:

 

At first the expected salesvolume was 10k.

No it wasn't.  10k was merely the quantity for which RPF could afford to buy BOM components.  The interest was at fever pitch on the web site/mailing list almost from the start, and they knew very early on (long before launch) that 100k+ would be wanted immediately under one-per-person rules, and more once the restriction was lifted.  That wasn't speculation, but direct feedback.  No hindsight needed.

In addition, all rational analyses were predicting that a vastly greater pool of interest existed beyond the techies that typically inhabit online venues.  That was speculation, granted, but very well informed speculation, and the way the Pi was continually being promoted was ensuring that this extra interest would just grow and grow.  The promotion was done in ordinary news channels after all, not just techie ones, and media centre functionality was so frequently mentioned that the promotion was clearly targeting people outside of techdom as well.

So no, it's not reasonable to claim that only with hindight could the level of demand we see today have been known.

And of course, a few weeks after the chaos of launch day, any doubt that might have been held about the levels of demand disappeared completely, so suggestions that the level of demand was unknown at any time after the first weeks of March are completely erroneous.

Roger Wolff wrote:

 

At first the expected salesvolume was 10k.

No it wasn't.  10k was merely the quantity for which RPF could afford to buy BOM components.  The interest was at fever pitch on the web site/mailing list almost from the start, and they knew very early on (long before launch) that 100k+ would be wanted immediately under one-per-person rules, and more once the restriction was lifted.  That wasn't speculation, but direct feedback.  No hindsight needed.

In addition, all rational analyses were predicting that a vastly greater pool of interest existed beyond the techies that typically inhabit online venues.  That was speculation, granted, but very well informed speculation, and the way the Pi was continually being promoted was ensuring that this extra interest would just grow and grow.  The promotion was done in ordinary news channels after all, not just techie ones, and media centre functionality was so frequently mentioned that the promotion was clearly targeting people outside of techdom as well.

So no, it's not reasonable to claim that only with hindight could the level of demand we see today have been known.

And of course, a few weeks after the chaos of launch day, any doubt that might have been held about the levels of demand disappeared completely, so suggestions that the level of demand was unknown at any time after the first weeks of March are completely erroneous.