This past year has seen some highs and lows in terms of technology advancements- Uber’s Ford Fusion self-driving vehicles deployed with relative success (with few hiccups) in Pittsburgh and has since began operating in San Francisco. Boston Dynamics revised their Atlas and SpotMini robot designs to better handle terrain and even perform rudimentary household tasks.
March brought long anticipated VR headsets to the market with the Oculus Rift and HTC Vive while the Sony PlayStation VR launched in October letting countless home users explore the ever-growing worlds of virtual reality. But perhaps the one technology that continually grabbed headlines were achievements in AI, notably with Google’s Alpha Go beating the world champion, Unanimous A.I.’s Swarm predicting a superfecta at this year’s Kentucky Derby (http://unu.ai/unu-superfecta-11k/) and Sanjiv Rai’s MogIA accurately predicting the outcome of this year’s presidential election. (http://www.techrepublic.com/article/ai-tool-successfully-predicted-trump-win-still-ai-experts-are-skeptical/)
Where does that leave the future in terms of development and advancements? What’s looming just over the horizon in terms of AI, AR/VR development? What about tech and engineering jobs, will those decline or diminish for humans? Will the President Elect promote new jobs and increased funding for the technology sector or throw some shade in that area? To begin with, let’s take a look at where engineering jobs are headed and are likely to go because without those we can have no developments or breakthroughs, which explains why we can never have nice things.
Bad news electrical engineers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics there will be little to no job growth for the next 8 years.
When it comes to engineering jobs in the US, the numbers do not look good. In fact, they are downright stagnant for some, mediocre for others and marginal for a few according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While there are a myriad of ‘engineering’ professions to undertake, I’m only going to use four examples from the BLS- electrical, mechanical, electro-mechanical and software as I feel they most exemplify the engineering ethos most associated with tech advancements and development.
To the point- electrical engineering jobs show a decrease for demand according to a 2014 to 2024 study with a job outlook of 315,700 expected by the target date, down from 315,900. Most are employed in the production and manufacturing sector, however demand for EE’s will marginally rise with the onset of alternative energy, semiconductor and communication tech. The outlook for mechanical engineers is slightly better with 292,100 expected by 2024, up from 277,500. Again, the demand may go up due to an increased focus on alternative energies, remanufacturing and nanotechnology. Electrical-mechanical gains a negligible rise 1% with 14,800, up from 14,700 in 2014. Software engineering on the other hand, is where the most job growth will take place since that profession is in hot demand and is expected to grow to 1,300,600 by 2024, up from 1,114,000, a 17% increase over the decade. (https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/home.htm)
What’s more, what used to be speculation about low-level jobs being replaced by AI is most certain to become a reality according to advisory firm Willis Towers Watson. A study conducted by the firm found that while AI automated platforms will not delete jobs on a wholesale level, it will obliterate many entry-level jobs usually garnered by graduates after leaving college. Entry-level jobs encompassing everything from retail to marketing will be affected, however it will save businesses an estimated 1-trillion dollars annually. So, there’s that.
This shift will probably result in businesses providing contract work for persons with the desired skills they require on a task or project basis, not for long-term employment. They state that the shift will likely bring a government role in providing a universal basic income as people will rely on providing their own income rather than company’s and corporations.
Next president going to make a difference?
So, what will President Elect Trump bring to the table in terms of job growth and development in the engineering arts? According to an interview from Ontheissues.org (http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Donald_Trump_Technology.htm), he’s for increased space exploration and STEM education, which he says, “will bring millions of jobs and trillions of dollars in investment to this country. The cascading effects of a vibrant space program are legion and can have a positive, constructive impact on the pride and direction of this country.”
In a related note, Trump recently met with all the big names in the tech industry- Elon Musk (Tesla/SpaceX), Timothy Cook (Apple), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), Sheryl Sandberg (Facebook), Larry Page and Eric Schmidt (Google/Alphabet) and Satya Nadella (Microsoft) to discuss jobs as well as cyber-security, China, immigration and taxes. Trump stated that his administration would be there for them and had their full support in accomplishing their endeavors. Surprisingly, he even suggested meeting with them on a quarterly basis to which they all agreed. (http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/12/14/tech-execs-begin-gather-trump-tower/95338938/)
With all the statements he’s made (and not made) before and after the election, he’s been consistent with mentioning creating and bringing jobs back to America but so has every president for that matter. The question is, will he stick to his promise to do so? He has also not commented on the probability of outsourcing jobs to AI platforms but considering he is a businessperson in all aspects, chances are he’s for the shift. That doesn’t mean he’s not for universal basic income or providing additional education for those looking for jobs, only time will tell what his administration will propose. Perhaps AI can answer this question but more importantly, where is it headed in terms of advancements and should we be concerned?
My money is on a state of unease for the next year, as people wait to see "what happens." Afterwards, we might see more investing as a whole. But, doesnt this usually come with every new presidency?
Artificial Intelligence coming for us all?
Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Artificial-intelligence-elon-musk-hawking.jpg
It seems strange that when it comes to AI people have divided into two groups and you are either for it or against it. Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak and a host of others have penned a letter warning that the technology could wind up being more dangerous than nuclear weapons, fearing that it could become weaponized or have direct control over weapons and then deem us a significant threat to it and ending our existence.
On the other hand, there are those that see advancing AI as a boon and researchers are working to progress the technology using a myriad of different methods including decision tree learning, clustering, artificial nueral networks and deep learning (among a host of others). So where is the technology headed and what might they be used for? Here are a few examples of what’s being developed at the moment that could expand in the future:
-Problem Solving: Researchers from Tufts University are developing an AI that will help solve biological questions. It has alerady been successful at figuring out the mechanisms invloved that allows a flatworm to regrow body parts. (http://now.tufts.edu/news-releases/planarian-regeneration-model-discovered-artificial-intelligence)
USC researchers are developing AI for what they term ‘social good’ or issues surroundinghuman social behavior They’ve already been successful using AI to help park rangers in Africa, Asia and other countries in an effort to curb poaching. They’ve also used it to help LAX security catch more weapons and drugs and plan on using it to help fight the spread of HIV in homless youth. (http://viterbi.usc.edu/news/news/2016/center-on-ai-for-social-solutions-caiss-milind-tambe-eric-rice.htm)
NASA engineers are developing a machine learning algorithym to help track the distribution of phytoplankton in an effort to better understand climate change through a program known as PACE (Pre-Aerosol Clouds and ocean Ecosystem). (https://decadal.gsfc.nasa.gov/pace.html)
-Helping with Everyday Tasks: Researchers from NYU discover a new verbal working memory archetecture that can help AI better understand natural language, which could be used to develop a Star Trek-like speech translator. (http://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2016/december/researchers_-discovery-of-new-verbal-working-memory-architecture.html)
Audi has partnered with Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent to bring about puplic intelligent transport, internet-connected vehicles and data analysis in an effort to brig about smart vehicles with increased capabilities for what they deem ‘the connected car of the future’. (https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/audi-strengthens-partnerships-with-chinese-tech-giants-6711)
-Defense Applications: DARPA is looking to utilize AI to help look for vulnerabilities in networks by rooting through vast amounts of code. Like most DARPA projects, the recently held a challenge for teams to build an AI-based system that could root-out vulnerabilities in a ‘protected netowrk’ and steal data. After 96 270-second rounds Carnegie Mellon’s For All Secure team won with their Mayhem AI platform, which DARPA will help develop further. (https://blog.forallsecure.com/)
The Sir Force is looking to develop an AI platform that can manage, react to cyber/electronic threats over the DODIN (Department of Defense Information Netowrk) network. Not only that, it want’s the same platform to be able to inact counter measures to enemy hackers, incomming missiles and RADAR intrusion faster than humans are capable of doing. (http://breakingdefense.com/2016/09/artificial-intelligence-for-the-air-force-cyber-electronic-warfare/)
Of course, AI is continually being developed for a host of other tasks as well including medical applications for assisting health and surgical professionals, utilized for space exploration and being incorporated into the IoT. Believe it or not, it’s also being utilized for marketing that will go beyond simply tailoring ads based on your site search. The question seems to be irrelevent in what AI will be able to do in the future but rather how long it will be before it gets there.
Image: YouTube.
VR/AR overtaking real R?
We’ve come a long way with the advancement of virtual reality since Nintendo released the Virtual Boy on the market back in 1995. Sure, it was a nauseating take on 3D gaming and technically not true VR but it was a start. Since then Sony, Oculus, Samsung and HTC have released their respective headgear that immerses us in virtual worlds we wouldn’t have thought possible back in the 90’s.
On the augmented reality side, Recon Jet, Vuzix, Sony and ODG have released their respective glasses on the market that provide a host of app overlays that augment the real world with functional data. And then there’s Maude- or rather platforms that merge both AR and VR for a form of hyper-reality, mixed-reality or hybrid-reality (however you prefer to call it). So what does the future hold for these respective technologies, turns out it’s a lot.
On the VR side, Oculus is looking to finally add the social aspect of VR as Facebook is on-tap to introduce Avatars at some point next year. Avatars let users interact with one another in a social atmosphere. Think of it like Second Life for Facebook, where up to eight people at a time choose an online identity that suits their personalities and then enter rooms to chat, play games and share media in a virtual setting. Users can also make video calls in that virtual space with anyone in their Facebook groups. Those in reality see the other’s virtual representation in that virtual environment while on the call. (http://www.theverge.com/2016/10/6/13177082/oculus-rift-avatars-vr-virtual-reality)
VR isn’t only for gaming or social aspects as other industries have taken hold as well and are developing their own applications including architectural firms that allow customers to walk through and view their buildings from any angle, in any environment such as IrisVR’s Prospect and Scope applications (https://irisvr.com/). The MedVR group at USC is developing VR for clinical purposes including tools to help those with PTSD, those that need physical therapy and even medical training using virtual human patients. (http://medvr.ict.usc.edu/projects/) The military is capitalizing on the technology and developing their own platforms for realistic combat training, mapping battlefields, developing smart weapons and telepresence applications.
(http://www.roadtovr.com/secretary-of-defense-checks-out-the-latest-at-navy-vr-research-lab/, http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/research/a21594/virtual-reality-military-maps/, http://ftp.hitl.washington.edu/projects/knowledge_base/virtual-worlds/EVE/II.G.Military.html respectively).
AR applications can go beyond simply looking at text messages, caller ID, email and video. Further than looking at overlaid directions while navigating streets. Businesses and retailers are developing their own platforms that would allow customers to see how items like furniture would look like in their homes like Ikea’s Kitchen Experience or the WayFairVeiw app for Google’s Tango. Healthcare providers are looking at ways to use AR for remote monitoring and diagnosing applications and even sports teams are looking to capitalize on it for monitoring player health. (http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/9245-augmented-reality-for-business.html). Arc Band plans to do a bit of the same. Connectivity is key.
While AR and VR technologies are great separately, merge them together and it’s something completely different. Known as mixed-reality (or any other of the names mentioned above) merges real, augmented and virtual worlds all in one platform and as fantastic as that may sound, the technology is still in fledgling form. Microsoft was one of the first companies to delve into the mixed bag with their Hololens headwear, which was released earlier this year for developers. The glasses allow users to create, deploy and interact with 3D objects in a real and virtual setting as well as overlap any information or data into that environment as well.
Companies such as Magic Leap are developing their own devices and applications that bring forth the tech in a myriad of different ways. The company’s Magic Leap One platform is still mostly under wraps as far as information goes but apparently it uses a rather large helmet-like HMD to interact with the environment, most notably what looks to be a rather awesome game if the video is true (SEE ABOVE). While there is yet to be a release data announced for the One, CEO Rony Abovitz stated they’re getting close to a production model ‘very soon’, ccording to blog posts.
While there is an abundance of tech news that rolls out daily, it’s difficult to keep up with it all. Every company wants to keep the public advised on their respective developments, you can guarentee people will want to push it all forward.
ONWARD!
Have a story tip? Message me at: cabe(at)element14(dot)com
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