A new Federal report on AI and automation doesn’t bode well for low-wage human workers by threatening existing jobs to the tune of 9 to 47%.
Depending on who you ask, during the Industrial Revolution skilled workers were none too impressed about being replaced by machines as companies transitioned over to a new manufacturing process. As a result, they would sometimes throw their footwear (boots, clogs, etc.), known as sabots into the machines in order to break them. Hence, the word ‘sabotage’ (French for wrecking stuff).
Regardless of how those workers felt, the Industrial Revolution continued on and brought about a host of new technology developments including textile manufacturing, steam power and a new method of making iron on a large scale. Almost 200 years later, we find ourselves on the cusp of the ‘fourth’ industrial revolution (industry 4.0)- cloud computing, the IoT, continued automation development (robotics) and AI. Again, skilled workers are worried about what the near future might bring regarding their jobs, not to mention what impact it may have on future generations.
Multiple federal agencies (Office of Science and Technology Policy, Domestic Policy Council and the Council of Economic Advisers) recently released a report on what could happen in the near future if current AI development and automation trends continue and the outlook would certainly be great for some but not so great for others. And by not so great I mean downright deplorable but then again, technology is constantly evolving so we should continue to evolve along with it right? Let’s see what the report has to say and whether that future is in doubt-
Will AI/automation completely take over low-paying jobs and can those affect adjust to the change?
The Artificial Intelligence, Automation and the Economy report states simply that accelerating AI capabilities will further enable automation and take over tasks normally done by human workers, which will lead to new opportunities (in terms of jobs) and economy growth, however this will come at the cost of millions of current/aging jobs. Some of those workers may be reassigned to different jobs within their respective companies but others will be forced to learn new skills or start on a different career path altogether.
Cashiers, truck drivers, assembly line workers, essentially any job that can be automated could be affected at some point in the next 10 to 20 years provided their findings are correct. According to a chart in the report, those making less than $20 per-hour or 83% will be the most affected, which coincides with those having a lower educational background (high school/trade school). Obviously, those with a college degree will be impacted far less than the majority of workers.
The numbers come from two studies listed in the report with a more optimistic version coming from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which states that only 9% of jobs are at risk of being ported over to AI and automation. The more detrimental figure of 47% comes from Carl Frey and Michael Osbourne who polled a panel of AI experts on the probability of automation replacing workers in the next few decades.
The report goes on to suggest that policy makers should prepare for five economic effects associated with the AI/automation transition with-
1: Positive contributions to aggregate productivity growth.
2: Changes in the skills demanded by the job market, including greater demand for higher-level technical skills.
3: Uneven distribution of impact, across sectors, wage levels, education levels, job types, and locations.
4: Churning of the job market as some jobs disappear while others are created.
5: The loss of jobs for some workers in the short-run, and possibly longer depending on policy responses.
It goes on to provide several government strategies to help spur economic growth with the transition including investing in AI/automation advancement for its many positive benefits, educate and train workers for future jobs and aid those in the transition while empowering them to insure shared growth.
The one question that the researchers cannot seem to accurately predict is if AI/automation implementation, in terms of new jobs and economic growth could handle the job losses that would certainly come with it. This is the critical question that would concern most people, which the report recommends a ‘strengthened social safety net along with more robust unemployment insurance’ as they essentially don’t know for certain what will happen. Perhaps those workers who can’t adjust will just throw their sabots into the machine in protest as countless others have done before.
This is probably why other countries such as Finland and Sweden are looking at Universal Income and how it would affect their populace, especially with those not capable of transitioning over or continuing/starting an education. Those that would like to read the complete report for themselves can head here.
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