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Self-Driving Cars are Here... to Stay

Catwell

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We will soon have our own personal driver.. maybe if we want it or not (image via Pixabay)


When we got word self-driving automobile technology was being developed, it was like hearing that hovercrafts were going into mass production – no one believed it. But now that the U.S. government pledged $4 billion to develop the technology, we’d better believe it’s going to be a thing.

 

The Department of Transportation recently released details for the initiative. The Obama administration has set aside $4 billion of the 2017 budget to invest in autonomous car technology over the next decade. The administration also announced a national standard for the technology will be released in July, hopefully regulating the state-by-state regulations now in practice.

 

At the Detroit Auto Show, U.S. Department of Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx said autonomous automobiles would potentially decrease the prevalence of automobile accidents, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and truly change the dynamic of mobility for the American People. This is already a focus in Japan.

 

According to a recent article published by the Wall Street Journal, Japanese taxi service Robot Taxi is planning to begin testing in 2016. Fifty residents of Kanagawa, just outside of Tokyo, will receive free round trip rides from their homes to the city to run errands, and back again, in a self-driving car. A driver will be seated behind the wheel, in case disaster strikes, but if successful, the company plans to have a fully autonomous taxi fleet by 2020. But the taxi service means much more to Japanese residents than just taking a cool ride.

 

Roughly one-third of Japan’s population is over 60 years of age. With few or no children, some elderly persons may find themselves without caretakers. Autonomous vehicles offer significant mobility to the elderly population and truly transform their quality of life nearing old age. It doesn’t solve every problem, but it will help. And that’s just the beginning.

 

In Europe, Daimler is transforming how we think of product transportation. It recently made history by being the first to test a mass-produced, self-driving Highway Pilot truck on Germany’s Autobahn 8, a public road. There’s much work to be done to transform product transportation, but if truckers have the option to take a break every now and again, without harming themselves or others, and make their deadline, it’s not such a bad gig after all.

 

Self-driving cars are coming whether we want them or not. Uber CEO Travis Kalanick allegedly told Tesla’s Steve Juvertson he would purchase all 500,000 autonomous automobiles the company plans to release in 2020. Whether or not he meant it literally remains to be seen, but it does signal a significant shift in the taxi industry, and how we view driving altogether.

According to a London experiment, self-driving cars use a complex system of laser technology to assess its surroundings. Much like the way in which bats ‘see’ the world using sonar radar, autonomous cars ‘see’ the world using laser technology and light. In the London experiment, you can see what an autonomous car allegedly sees when it’s driving you around, and you’ll probably feel much safer.

 

There are many tests that have yet to be done to determine just how safe autonomous vehicles are. If indeed automobile accidents and greenhouse gas emission can be reduced, it’s certainly worth investing in the technology. The promise of enhanced mobility for the elderly and disabled is also a real, tangible benefit that cannot be ignored.

Keep your eyes on the industry if you’re looking to snag an autonomous vehicle of your own by 2020. It won’t be cheap, but the convenience will probably be well worth it.

 

Have a news tip? Message me at:

http://twitter.com/Cabe_Atwell

  • in reply to shabaz

    My point (imho):

    The government discourages car ownership with high license fees and the largest train system in the world(by track miles) in Shanghai. Ownership of cars in the future looks more doubtful at least in China based on current driving habits(horn blowing is rampant with lane switching ).

    Clem

    PS BTW, the accidents with automated cars have been to date with other drivers not following rules exactly where the automatic car did.

  • in reply to clem57

    Hi Clem,

     

    I don't disagree, I too would like to see a world with more use of public transportation. I still don't see how or why you feel automation cannot help in a general scenario (not necessarily Shanghai).

     

    Part of the reason for the congestion is the fact that taxis/trains/busses are not always there at the right time and the right place and all the

    intangible factors like wanting your own car, etc., that Randall  refers to. People aspire to car ownership there and everywhere, and that is no bad thing always, but what if convenience, safety, cost reduction could become compelling enough? The article speculates what could happen in 2020, and we're all speculating whether there is a market for it, and perhaps some speculation in whether the technology could ever reach a point where it could cope with unexpectedness like snow and Shanghai.  I see no reason not to speculate too, but I think 2020 is perhaps a bit too close - I think it will be further out but within some of our lifetimes.

     

    We can't predict the future with accuracy, but it seems to me that straight off the bat there could be less vehicles on the road with this new approach to transport. Less shuttling two people when only one needs to be somewhere, and then free the car for its next task. It could reduce number of actual vehicles on the road perhaps. The fact that there is no taxi driver is an accoutrement, reducing costs further. Perhaps the taxi driver only needs to buy the car, i.e. he/she won't need to drive it. In other words maybe the job role changes - who knows - all further speculation I'm afraid.

     

    Nevertheless I'm quite interested that we could be on the brink of a new mode of transport. It opens some (like me) to rethink ownership of their cars - and I'm certainly no tree-hugger with my current vehicle. If the capability existed, I don't think I would  want a car sitting idle when it could be used by others, provided I get access to it when I need it and provided I trust the driving and scheduling algorithms.

     

    Lots of "if's" but the technology could work a decade or two from now maybe? If that is the case, the R&D money needs to be invested from now and earlier. It is quite telling that the major vehicle manufacturers are focussed on this, as is Google and governments are prepared to invest too.

     

    Already there is tons of automation - today vehicles are driven under computer instruction - it is google maps/navigation that dictates which direction my car will head to avoid traffic. The pace at which that technology was adopted by everyone was immense - Navigating decline: what happened to TomTom? | Business | The Guardian (snippet: "But Vigreux, 50, has seen enough change in the technology business to know that “your competitors come from different fields – they’re not the ones you expect them to be").

     

    Glimmers of algorithms and vision systems that will help form the sub-systems of driver-less technology are already there in primitive form in vehicles today, like the self-parking option that new VW cars can have, and the lane assist stuff.

     

    And since ages vehicle selection is by computer algorithm - I just click and the nearest one comes to me. It has a real driver in it though today.

    If we can optimise and reduce vehicles on the road, lower costs and provide convenience beyond traditional taxi's (some of which Uber and others are already doing in their own ways) through driverless cars, then I can totally see why billions will be invested by governments and vehicle manufacturers.

     

    I too have seen Shanghai a few times, and like you I mainly used taxi's - my insurance would not cover driving there anyway, nor would I want to, even the taxi's are frightening enough, with many close calls.

    Maybe the technology will never be suitable for a Shanghai environment, with the extreme density and and rate of events that exists on the roads there. Or maybe it will only become prevalent for local travel or in new towns.

    But I certainly wouldn't rule it out as being a pipe-dream given how reliant we already are on automation to get us from place to place.

  • in reply to shabaz

    I have been to Shanghai twice now within a few years. I see a city of 25 million with good road congested beyond belief. It really is easier to take public transportation and walk rather than drive. Taxi's are relatively inexpensive for places that the buses/trains do not cover. Even at the airport other methods of "private taxi's" exists. If money is a problem for a few bucks the walking can be eliminated with two people motorcycle cages(cheap unauthorized taxi like). The reality is automation does not fix lack of road space which is a huge problem in this large city.

    Clem

  • in reply to mcb1

    I don't know, the amount of computers we use has increased though.

    The voice commands on mobiles are pretty good - I can get it to dial a number quicker than I can search and type, or turn on the navigation to a location etc. Quicker than thumbing through and finding the right app and typing the address.

    A couple of years ago I had to write a _lot_ and I seriously considered dictation as an alternative to learning to type - ended up purchasing the Nuance software and a special mic for it. The voice recognition technology was incredible - I could talk with normal speed and accent and even make edits on the fly. However, their software was so buggy (but unrelated to the actual voice tech) that I discontinued after raising endless cases that were not resolved. But yeah for nearly all traditional desktop/laptop use, voice isn't there and might never make sense - especially when everyone also values sound privacy. Anyway that's a digression... you're right the taxi industry won't like it, but even today Uber is a very powerful force it seems. Uber and others are getting better at winning their battles.

     

    EDIT: Just in case anyone from Nuance trawls the Internet, here is evidence of the bugginess and cases I had to raise:

    image

  • in reply to shabaz

    Nice fanciful dreaming.

    I seem to recall that keyboards would be obsolete, along with mice ... guess what the talking we do to our computers isn't for the mass'es to see. image

     

    I wouldn't be surprised if some from of automation was available in the future.

    In the meantime the Taxi industry would be opposed to it, and all our tree hugging friends are discouraging personal transport.

     

    It's a hard fight, and an even harder sell than electric cars.

     

    Mark