Self-Driving Cars are Here... to Stay

I vehemently disagree with the conclusions stated in this article. I mean, where should are start debunking the opinions?

Let's start with Japan. the article states 1/3 of the population is over 60 (elderly) so the demand for self-driving cars is there. Well, an older population will always be a shrinking demographic (unless cryogenics keeps us alive for centuries AND you can defrost someone at absolute zero -270C in minutes!). Talk to a marketer and she or he will probably say, market to the young and build a generation of return customers.

Granted, I think there is a market for self-driving transportation for the sick or the elderly. But what about a 16-year old. One thing engineers and product dreamers often forget is that many human activities are not utility in nature; rather, they provide an important culture purpose such as a "coming of age" ritual. And in America, getting your driver's license at 16 is a big coming of age thing. Why? Imagine a 16 year old guy asking his high school sweetheart out for the first time in a self-driving car?  (Oh Betty Lou, how about taking a spin in my new self-driving car?) That's why being in control of a car is more than a mobility device:

(The above photo is from American Grafitti.)

Let me get serious now. Let's talk about Chicago and cars. If you have a car in Chicago, your big concern is not driving; rather, it is parking. So, let's go back to the future and talk about the year of the winter vortex:

Let the innovators from Silicon Valley figure out how to get a bunch of self driving cars out of this mess -- an accidental driving turned parking nightmare on Lake Shore Drive due to a wild snowstorm.

Take a look around where you live. I'm sure you have seen these:

What in the world would some drive this monster in chicago where gas costs the most and the truck is too big to get around? My friends, this is what I call an ego truck. Our ego and self-identity is often intertwined with the vehicles we drive. No one will give up the driving to a computer if they own an ego F150 truck unless they are forced to by gov regulation.

I think we're getting a good glimpse into the future here. It might be far out (much further than 2020) but it is interesting that we're fast reaching the point where technically none of this is impossible any more, i.e. from a technical standpoint none of this will be fiction very soon. It is now more of a question about what manufacturers do with this capability, if they want to.

We're also at the point in time where it would be surprising if vehicle manufacturers were not thinking about it.

You raise a good point, why would people want this, when it is fun to drive, or when people have ego machines. It 's a difficult question. Maybe it could slow adoption, or destroy it outright. Perhaps driver-less cars  do not need to look like cars, maybe they are better considered as a new mode of transportation (like a bus for example still has wheels but isn't a car).

For all the mundane tasks (like going shopping or to work) it isn't fun for everyone to drive, especially with heavy traffic or bad weather, where there isn't much driving just crawling.

The convenience of being able to click a button and have your car right outside, or instructed to self-locate a parking space after dropping you off somewhere might win out. Also, since there is no need to see the

road, the car could be a work area with coffee machine! or a shareable mode of transport so that if it is not in use, it is being shared with others if you 'click to accept' travel requests -   if the car was making me $100 a day, I might be willing to pay a few thousand $$ more for a vehicle with self-driving capabilities and put up with the cleaning.

I know this is all speculative (but we are talking at least half a decade from now and likely longer), but it all depends on what people want and are willing to pay for - the manufacturers can almost make it since the technology is fast getting there.

As another idea maybe personal ownership of a car (i.e. 'driver-less car' if we consider it as a new mode of transport) would change, and half the amount of  vehicles could serve a neighborhood through purchase/lease schemes.

Nice fanciful dreaming.

I seem to recall that keyboards would be obsolete, along with mice ... guess what the talking we do to our computers isn't for the mass'es to see.

I wouldn't be surprised if some from of automation was available in the future.

In the meantime the Taxi industry would be opposed to it, and all our tree hugging friends are discouraging personal transport.

It's a hard fight, and an even harder sell than electric cars.

Mark

Nice fanciful dreaming.

I seem to recall that keyboards would be obsolete, along with mice ... guess what the talking we do to our computers isn't for the mass'es to see.

I wouldn't be surprised if some from of automation was available in the future.

In the meantime the Taxi industry would be opposed to it, and all our tree hugging friends are discouraging personal transport.

It's a hard fight, and an even harder sell than electric cars.

Mark

I don't know, the amount of computers we use has increased though.

The voice commands on mobiles are pretty good - I can get it to dial a number quicker than I can search and type, or turn on the navigation to a location etc. Quicker than thumbing through and finding the right app and typing the address.

A couple of years ago I had to write a _lot_ and I seriously considered dictation as an alternative to learning to type - ended up purchasing the Nuance software and a special mic for it. The voice recognition technology was incredible - I could talk with normal speed and accent and even make edits on the fly. However, their software was so buggy (but unrelated to the actual voice tech) that I discontinued after raising endless cases that were not resolved. But yeah for nearly all traditional desktop/laptop use, voice isn't there and might never make sense - especially when everyone also values sound privacy. Anyway that's a digression... you're right the taxi industry won't like it, but even today Uber is a very powerful force it seems. Uber and others are getting better at winning their battles.

EDIT: Just in case anyone from Nuance trawls the Internet, here is evidence of the bugginess and cases I had to raise:

I have been to Shanghai twice now within a few years. I see a city of 25 million with good road congested beyond belief. It really is easier to take public transportation and walk rather than drive. Taxi's are relatively inexpensive for places that the buses/trains do not cover. Even at the airport other methods of "private taxi's" exists. If money is a problem for a few bucks the walking can be eliminated with two people motorcycle cages(cheap unauthorized taxi like). The reality is automation does not fix lack of road space which is a huge problem in this large city.

Clem

Hi Clem,

I don't disagree, I too would like to see a world with more use of public transportation. I still don't see how or why you feel automation cannot help in a general scenario (not necessarily Shanghai).

Part of the reason for the congestion is the fact that taxis/trains/busses are not always there at the right time and the right place and all the

intangible factors like wanting your own car, etc., that Randall  refers to. People aspire to car ownership there and everywhere, and that is no bad thing always, but what if convenience, safety, cost reduction could become compelling enough? The article speculates what could happen in 2020, and we're all speculating whether there is a market for it, and perhaps some speculation in whether the technology could ever reach a point where it could cope with unexpectedness like snow and Shanghai.  I see no reason not to speculate too, but I think 2020 is perhaps a bit too close - I think it will be further out but within some of our lifetimes.

We can't predict the future with accuracy, but it seems to me that straight off the bat there could be less vehicles on the road with this new approach to transport. Less shuttling two people when only one needs to be somewhere, and then free the car for its next task. It could reduce number of actual vehicles on the road perhaps. The fact that there is no taxi driver is an accoutrement, reducing costs further. Perhaps the taxi driver only needs to buy the car, i.e. he/she won't need to drive it. In other words maybe the job role changes - who knows - all further speculation I'm afraid.

Nevertheless I'm quite interested that we could be on the brink of a new mode of transport. It opens some (like me) to rethink ownership of their cars - and I'm certainly no tree-hugger with my current vehicle. If the capability existed, I don't think I would  want a car sitting idle when it could be used by others, provided I get access to it when I need it and provided I trust the driving and scheduling algorithms.

Lots of "if's" but the technology could work a decade or two from now maybe? If that is the case, the R&D money needs to be invested from now and earlier. It is quite telling that the major vehicle manufacturers are focussed on this, as is Google and governments are prepared to invest too.

Already there is tons of automation - today vehicles are driven under computer instruction - it is google maps/navigation that dictates which direction my car will head to avoid traffic. The pace at which that technology was adopted by everyone was immense - Navigating decline: what happened to TomTom? | Business | The Guardian (snippet: "But Vigreux, 50, has seen enough change in the technology business to know that “your competitors come from different fields – they’re not the ones you expect them to be").

Glimmers of algorithms and vision systems that will help form the sub-systems of driver-less technology are already there in primitive form in vehicles today, like the self-parking option that new VW cars can have, and the lane assist stuff.

And since ages vehicle selection is by computer algorithm - I just click and the nearest one comes to me. It has a real driver in it though today.

If we can optimise and reduce vehicles on the road, lower costs and provide convenience beyond traditional taxi's (some of which Uber and others are already doing in their own ways) through driverless cars, then I can totally see why billions will be invested by governments and vehicle manufacturers.

I too have seen Shanghai a few times, and like you I mainly used taxi's - my insurance would not cover driving there anyway, nor would I want to, even the taxi's are frightening enough, with many close calls.

Maybe the technology will never be suitable for a Shanghai environment, with the extreme density and and rate of events that exists on the roads there. Or maybe it will only become prevalent for local travel or in new towns.

But I certainly wouldn't rule it out as being a pipe-dream given how reliant we already are on automation to get us from place to place.

My point (imho):

The government discourages car ownership with high license fees and the largest train system in the world(by track miles) in Shanghai. Ownership of cars in the future looks more doubtful at least in China based on current driving habits(horn blowing is rampant with lane switching ).

Clem

PS BTW, the accidents with automated cars have been to date with other drivers not following rules exactly where the automatic car did.